Earlier this season, I wrote about the NHL’s most overrated and underrated teams when measured in terms of market performance.
What exactly does that mean? Rather than look at conventional stats or rely on eye tests, I wanted to determine which teams over or under-performed based on people’s opinions of them. Here’s how I went about it, using oddsmakers’ lines.
One reason I like to look at sports betting markets for this kind of thing is that, to a certain extent, they are quantifying fans and bookmakers’ opinions of teams’ abilities. Lines move around as teams go through ups and downs or sustain injuries, and near the end of the season you can start to get a sense of which teams have under or over-performed relative to those opinions.
Over the past few days I used oddsmakers lines and theoretical betting units of $100 to determine NHL teams’ performance to determine the most overrated and underrated teams in the league so far this season. Here’s how it works:
$100 winning bet on a +150 underdog returns $150
$100 losing bet on +150 underdog returns -$100
$150 winning bet on a -150 favourite returns $100
$150 losing bet on -150 favourite returns -$150
So let’s think of it like this: if you’d bought stock in a hot pre-season team, say, the Nashville Predators, all season, how would it look today?
So, how did the Coyotes, the league’s second-worst team, measure up to our already low expectations for them over the course of a full season?
Unlike the Colorado Avalanche, who just kept plummeting after a mid-season plunge, the Coyotes at least rebounded a bit toward the end of the season to make things respectable. They actually knocked off the Washington Capitals and Los Angeles Kings as +285 and +244 underdogs, respectively, which accounts for that big jump over the final handful of games. The mid-season dip corresponds with a 3-13 run over that span.
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